Last night there came a shock announcement that Steve Jobs was resigning from the CEO position of Apple with immediate effect, to be replaced by his chosen heir Tim Cook. Apple and Steve Jobs have spent many years cultivating the concept that he is single handedly the midas touch guy responsible for their success, so the without him the world falls right? I doubt it.
Steve's been ill for a long time, he's had a liver transplant a few years back that was kept hidden from the stock market at the time because of how closely he is linked to Apple's success and the impact it'd have on the share price.
Even without his illness nobody lives forever, unless Apple have been secretly working on Futurama tech of having Steve's head in a jar leading the company indefinitely like Richard Nixon here. No matter what else Apple do or don't do, there will be a time after Steve.
I am no Apple fan, I respect some of the things they've achieved but am appalled at some of their behavior and ways of treating customers and employees. So I look on as an outsider to what Steve's real impact was, to see what impact a lack of Steve will actually mean.
The myth has been built up that he has the Ceaser role of giving the thumbs up or down to ideas if they meet his artistic vision of what is right. The myth is that he is right more often than not, and that the products go on to become incredibly popular and successful. That sounds about right, although the ratio is probably skewed a bit. There have been several Apple products blessed by Steve that have failed, while others have been wildly successful. So if Steve is no longer CEO, does this artistic Ceaser role change?
He's standing down as CEO, and moving to the Chairman role, he's not leaving Apple, nor has he died. I'm guessing his health is the key factor in this, that he has to cut his hours back drastically. I wonder how much time he's put in over the last couple of years as CEO too. My guess is that an extended medical leave meant he's been doing unofficially what he now has announced as a permanent role. My guess is that Apple have been doing business as usual without Steve Jobs.
Apple have a very well established model and infrastructure. They have a very distinct brand with loyal fans and customers. They have all sorts of established lockin models in place. Their products have been iterations of the previous model for a while. How different is the iPhone1 to the iPhone4 beyond the usual lighter, faster, more powerful etc? It's the same device with predictable enhancements. The same applies to all of their range. The appointed heir Mr Cook has been chosen from within, he's not an outsider to the Apple mindset and brand. They don't need Steve Jobs to continue the product lines they currently have.
Where they may struggle is in changing those products. If in five years Apple decided to throw out OSX in favour of a totally new OS, a Steve Jobs blessed OS would likely be hailed as a success, an OS not blessed by Steve Jobs would face the same backlash as any major wholesale change. The same applies to any new markets Apple try to enter. They've built up the hype around Steve Jobs to such a degree that many won't give them a chance on new things, where in all likelihood the results wouldn't be that much different than if Steve had blessed them.
I don't doubt that in the short term Apple's stock price will plummet on the news, then crawl back up as they realize nothing will change in the short term with Apple's business, products, services or infrastructure. They are still the stylish overpriced bully who package existing technology as innovation to an adoring fanbase willing to throw cash at them.
Many see Windows XP as the best edition of Windows that Microsoft made. It was the last edition of Windows that Bill Gates was in charge of. It was also in use long enough that it had years of patches to make it reasonably stable. Bill Gates stood down, and Steve Ballmer took over. Steve Ballmer's first Windows was Vista, which is widely seen as a disaster. Steve Ballmer has not had any real successes so far, it's not looking as if he'll ever achieve any.
There the similarities end. Microsoft have been dysfunctional for a long time both before and after Bill Gates left. Their profits are reliant on denying customers any other option but theirs or getting a cut from competing products via extortion rackets. Apple under Steve Jobs have been very focused, very single minded to put out products and services that some people actually want, will happily pay over inflated prices for even with the restrictions Apple put on those devices.
There's no reason to assume that Apple can't take prototypes of new ideas to Steve for his opinions. One day of course that's not going to be possible, so Apple are trying to undo the Godhood status they're carefully cultivated around Steve Jobs so they can survive the fallout.
Arguably the one area they have lost in Steve Jobs is the salesman routine at the launch events. Life goes on, people adapt, companies also adapt. Do they try to do the same thing with another presenter? Maybe. Is it wise? Probably not. It was always seen as something Steve did, so anyone else doing the same thing will always be compared negatively to him no matter how well he or she does. Evolving would be a better approach.
I do see the Apple stock price dropping, then rising back to reality. The Steve Jobs PR / myth factor always added extra value to the stock price, so I doubt it will get back to those prices after him, but then it was arguably over priced to begin with, so it's more of a "finally a realistic price after so long".
Does the famous Reality Distortion Field fade with Steve Jobs? Maybe. They won't be given as much of a free ride by sycophants as they have enjoyed until now. They will be hesitant at the criticism in reviews of "well, Steve would never have allowed .....". Who knows, without Steve Jobs they may be able to take the opportunity to behave better towards employees, contractors and customers, as well as learning how to compete fairly. As optimistic as that sounds, I doubt that will happen any time soon.
The other myth that people often overlook here is that Steve Jobs is the only person with artistic flair and the ability to know good design when he sees it. He's not.
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